Hawk Thorne

Investment research and technology.

We combine financial market research, proprietary models and risk measurement. We develop this work through the investment of our own capital.

Our research approach The AEGIS platform

Hawk Thorne Insights / From the research archive

Fed futures price a firmer path even as options market stays calm before payrolls

3 September 2026Read analysis

Photo: Mark Hodson Photos · CC BY 2.0 (edited)

Research

Our research approach

We study how information shapes market expectations and what those expectations imply for exposure and risk. We compare interpretations with the data and identify what would warrant a change in our assessment.

Market interpretation

Narrative analysis

Connects events, expectations and market exposures. We record each thesis with its evidence and the conditions that would warrant a revision. Our published analysis makes this process open to examination.

Narrative analysis methodology

Our wider research includes modelling capital growth. GEPS: assumptions and limitations

Our research is supported by our own systems for data acquisition, information analysis and portfolio calculations.

Our technology

Client software

BY HAWK THORNE

AEGIS

Built on technology developed to analyse our own capital.

Portfolio risk analytics

AEGIS makes selected tools from our analytical infrastructure available to private investors and investment teams. Its scope covers exposures, stress scenarios, events and monitoring of user-defined limits.

We develop the platform as software for licensed use. Access is currently arranged individually through a private preview.

AEGIS capabilities and applications

Hawk Thorne Insights

Publications and methodology

Market analysis, our editorial methodology and a thesis ledger form the public record of our work. The ledger also retains interpretations that required correction.