How we analyse markets
Connect market expectations with evidence, pricing and financial exposures.
Expectations and evidence
Narratives explain how investors connect events with future outcomes. We examine the underlying assumptions, compare them with economic releases and market pricing, and identify the exposures that depend on them. Repetition is not evidence.
- Expectation
- Lower inflation will allow interest-rate cuts.
- Evidence to review
- Inflation releases, central-bank statements and rate pricing.
- Related exposure
- Bonds sensitive to changes in expected interest rates.
- What would change the thesis
- Persistent inflation challenges the expected path of rate cuts.
An example of the reasoning process, not a current market assessment or Hawk Thorne forecast.
Complementary perspectives
Fundamental analysis examines economic conditions and valuations. Price analysis describes market behaviour; positioning helps identify where exposures are concentrated. Narrative analysis asks which expectations connect these observations and what could challenge them. No single perspective is sufficient.
A dated research record
State the claim, time horizon, supporting evidence and condition for review before assessing the outcome. Our thesis ledger separates forecasts from interpretations of current conditions. Subsequent assessments remain linked to the original publication. This is a research record, not portfolio performance.