Data acquisition
Economic and market information
Our systems collect market data, economic releases, issuer disclosures and reporting on market events. Sources and publication context are retained.
AEGIS
Market intelligence and portfolio risk.
AEGIS brings together Hawk Thorne’s proprietary data infrastructure, narrative analysis and quantitative risk measurement.
By connecting information about the economy, issuers and market expectations with financial instruments, the platform places portfolio analysis in its wider market context.
Platform & data
A proprietary analytical foundation
AEGIS is underpinned by an analytical process developed by Hawk Thorne, from the acquisition of source information through preparation and interpretation to its relevance for portfolio exposures.
Data preparation
Information consistency and quality
Data is cleaned, normalised and checked for duplication and gaps. Classification and comparison across sources prepare the information for analysis.
Market relationships
Issuers, instruments and exposures
Information is linked to issuers and financial instruments, as well as sectors, currencies and regions. Economic developments can then be examined in an investment context.
Interpretation and measurement
The relevance of information to risk
Narrative analysis examines changes in market expectations. Quantitative models measure exposures and portfolio behaviour under defined scenarios. Both perspectives inform the assessment of risk.
Narrative analysis
The expectations shaping markets
A market narrative is a shared interpretation of what matters for future prices and economic outcomes.
Hawk Thorne’s narrative analysis identifies these interpretations, tracks how they change and examines the evidence on which they rest. It forms part of the research foundation behind AEGIS.
Market expectations
Which assumptions about growth, inflation, monetary policy or company earnings dominate the interpretation of events?
Evidence and positioning
Do economic evidence, market positioning and price behaviour support that interpretation? Where do they diverge?
Exposure relevance
Which sectors, currencies and risk factors are associated with those assumptions? What new evidence would warrant a reassessment?
Portfolio risk
Quantitative risk in market context
AEGIS relates the analysis to portfolio composition. Quantitative models describe exposures, relationships and scenarios; market information provides context for their interpretation.
Exposures and concentration
Portfolio composition by instrument, sector and currency. Sensitivity to common factors and the contribution of individual positions to portfolio risk.
Scenarios and allocation changes
Stress scenarios and a comparison of the current portfolio with a user-defined allocation. Results are assessed against the model’s stated assumptions.
Events and market context
Issuer developments, earnings releases, central bank decisions and economic data linked to portfolio positions or exposure dimensions.
Limits and reporting
Monitoring of user-defined rules, a dated record of breaches and a risk report. A consistent basis for regular portfolio review and a record of the analysis.
A basis for evaluating the analysis
The report retains the data date, model version, portfolio coverage and limitations. Results can be assessed against what the model actually covers.
Sample AEGIS report
Market expectations. Portfolio implications.
This example connects a market narrative with AEGIS calculations for a hypothetical portfolio: 12 instruments, 80% in listed positions and 20% cash. Base currency: PLN.
Model data: . A historical snapshot demonstrating the report format; it is not a current market assessment.
Narrative analysis
Fed expectations and the value of dollar holdings
Observations from 13–14 August 2026. Research interpretation prepared for this example.
What is changing in the market narrative
The analysed material described reduced expectations for further Fed rate increases. That weakens one argument for a stronger dollar: the prospect of higher US interest rates.
Why this matters for this portfolio
For a portfolio measured in PLN, dollar movements affect the value of US holdings even if their prices in USD stay unchanged. The outcome also depends on the zloty and the companies’ own performance.
28% of the portfolio in the covered USD holdings discussed here
- AAPL.US9%
- MSFT.US8%
- NVDA.US6%
- XOM.US5%
What would test this interpretation
- Supporting condition
- A further decline in the expected US rate path, accompanied by USD weakening against PLN.
- Counterevidence
- Renewed expectations of rate increases, or a stronger dollar despite a lower expected rate path. In that case, the Fed narrative alone does not explain the exchange rate.
- Next review
- After the next inflation release or Fed communication: compare the change in rate expectations with the USD/PLN response.
A reading concerning USD/JPY does not determine USD/PLN. The weights describe portfolio composition, not the narrative’s risk contribution.
Calculation coverage
- Portfolio covered by the model
- 68%
- Outside model coverage
- 12%
- Cash
- 20%
SPY.US (12% of the portfolio) is not covered by this model snapshot. Its risk is excluded from the results below. Missing coverage does not mean zero risk.
Instruments and weights
| Instrument | Weight | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| SPY.US | 12% | Missing |
| AAPL.US | 9% | Yes |
| MSFT.US | 8% | Yes |
| NVDA.US | 6% | Yes |
| XOM.US | 5% | Yes |
| PKN.WAR | 8% | Yes |
| PKO.WAR | 7% | Yes |
| PZU.WAR | 6% | Yes |
| KGH.WAR | 5% | Yes |
| CDR.WAR | 5% | Yes |
| DNP.WAR | 5% | Yes |
| ALE.WAR | 4% | Yes |
| Cash | 20% | — |
Risk measures
- Annualised model volatility
- 10.38%
- Parametric VaR: 95%, 21 sessions
- 4.84%
VaR estimates a loss threshold at the stated horizon and confidence level. Losses can exceed it. These measures express risk from covered positions relative to the whole portfolio.
Broad equity market falls 10%-6.87%
USD strengthens 10% against PLN+1.6%
Technology sector falls 15%-1.59%
Scenarios apply assumed changes to risk factors. Results assign no probability to those changes and are not return forecasts.
Hawk Thorne technology
Developed through our own investment process
Hawk Thorne develops research methods, acquires data and builds technology to analyse markets and invest its own capital.
AEGIS makes selected capabilities of that infrastructure available as software for private investors and investment teams. Its focus is market analysis and portfolio risk.
Hawk Thorne’s technologyAccess to AEGIS
Use and access arrangements
AEGIS is developed as software for licensed use. A presentation covers the analytical foundation, data coverage and the platform’s role in a risk review process.
Discuss AEGIS- Availability
- Private preview, with access by arrangement.
- Portfolio data
- Instruments and percentage weights. No portfolio values or brokerage connection required.
- Calculation cycle
- Core risk calculations use end-of-day data. Coverage depends on the instruments and available data.
- Scope of use
- Analytical software. Investment decisions remain with the user; AEGIS does not execute trades or issue personalised buy or sell recommendations.