Poland
Warsaw-listed equities, the zloty and NBP policy, read with the same discipline as the global desks.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)PKO BP's earnings beat lifts a sector where Pekao still trades cheaper
WIG-BANKI rallied 1.81% on 4 November 2026 alongside a broad Warsaw advance, but the sector's cheapest large banks still trade well below their peers on P/E.
Metaphox · CC BY 2.0 (edited)WIG hits a turnover record while WIG20 and KGHM slip on copper
Warsaw's main market booked record October turnover even as WIG20 fell 0.34% on 3 November 2026 and KGHM led the index lower on a seven-week copper low.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Złoty hits a fresh high, bank stocks fall before NBP votes
EUR/PLN rose 0.33% on 3 November 2026 as WIG-BANKI fell 1.91%, a split the desk's 30 October note called unresolved, now testing itself the day before the Council votes.
aromano · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Bank stocks and the złoty disagree on what the RPP does next
WIG-BANKI gained another 1.96% on 29 October 2026 while EUR/PLN barely moved, a split that sharpens, rather than resolves, Friday's question of what the market is pricing for 4 November.
Poland's October CPI lands right where the NBP didn't expect it
October flash CPI landed at 3.5%, at the top of the NBP's tolerance band, days before the 4 November rate decision tests whether the Council reads it as room to cut.
Pekao's profit drop tests the bank-sector rally WIG-BANKI just booked
Pekao reported a 20% fall in third-quarter net profit on 29 October 2026, a day after mBank's record quarter drove WIG-BANKI up 3.11%, leaving the sector's valuation gap only partly explained.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)One record quarter at mBank leaves peers' valuation gap exposed
WIG-BANKI rose 3.11% on 27 October 2026 after mBank's quarterly profit hit a record, but the sector still trades cheaper than PKO BP and Pekao on a price-to-book basis, a gap the desk's open rate-tax question has yet to close.
Bernard Spragg · CC0 1.0mBank's record quarter lifts bank stocks, tax question still open
WIG-BANKI jumped 3.11% on 27 October 2026 after mBank's quarterly profit rose to PLN 1,085 million, but the bank-tax drag this desk flagged on 23 October has not been tested by any RPP signal on rate cuts.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Zloty hits a near three-year low against the euro on policy friction
EUR/PLN is trading near 4.40, its highest level in nearly three years, with one wire tying the move to tension between the government and the NBP.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw bank stocks extend their slide ahead of a rate verdict
Warsaw's bank index has fallen 3.57% over five sessions into the 30 October CPI flash estimate, a drop the desk's tax-squeeze reading still has to answer for without new RPP language.
ITU Pictures · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish bank stocks fall twice as fast as the market, unexplained
WIG-BANKI dropped 3.0% on 22 October 2026, nearly double WIG20's 1.73% decline, a gap the desk's standing fiscal-squeeze reading does not account for.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Bank index posts its worst session in weeks, tax thesis unmoved
Warsaw's rate-sensitive bank index fell 3.0% on 22 October 2026, its sharpest drop since the desk's 19 October note argued the sector was pricing a tax squeeze, not a rate cut.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish banks' tax bill outpaces profit decline, stocks barely blink
WIG-BANKI gained 1.09% on 16 October 2026 even as a fiscal squeeze lifted bank income tax by 45% in eight months and cut net profits nearly 12%, a split the sector's own valuations do not yet reflect.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Banks shrug off a Polish inflation print that breached the ceiling
September inflation rose to 4.1%, above the NBP's 3.5% upper tolerance band, while WIG-BANKI fell 1.03% on 14 October 2026, a split that leaves the rate-sensitive banks pricing less conviction in a hawkish turn than the headline print would suggest.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks rally as Fitch flags a wider Polish deficit
WIG-BANKI jumped 2.13% on 12 October 2026 even as Fitch lifted its 2027 deficit forecast to 7.1% of GDP, leaving two separate questions, the rate path and fiscal risk, that only different evidence can settle.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish retail prices firm just as Warsaw's rally skips the banks
WIG20 is up 2.48% over five sessions even as fresh retail price data and a firming USD/PLN point to inflation risk the March NBP projection has not fully priced.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Bank-specific filings explain Warsaw's selloff, not the złoty
WIG-BANKI dropped 3.05% on 8 October 2026 while EUR/PLN held near 4.3771, a split that keeps the selloff reading as bank-specific rather than a Polish risk repricing.
Images_of_Money · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Dollar strength, not Poland risk, drives złoty's dual slide
EUR/PLN rose 0.28% and USD/PLN 0.77% so far on 8 October 2026, even as WIG-BANKI's 2.41% drop on 7 October already looked like the region's worst session.
CIDSE - together for global justice · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw bank stocks erase a rally the złoty never confirmed
WIG-BANKI fell 2.41% to 27,656.2 at the 7 October 2026 close, wiping out the prior session's bounce, while EUR/PLN is only 0.23% higher so far on 8 October 2026, a split that questions whether the bank selloff is Poland-specific.
Arian Zwegers · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw's bank index rises as RPP decides on 3.75% reference rate
WIG-BANKI rose 2.93% to 28,338.29 on 6 October 2026, a one-session move that still leaves the index essentially flat over five sessions, with the złoty unmoved into a decision on a reference rate parked at 3.75% since March.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish growth hits 3.8%, Warsaw's bank stocks don't seem to care
GUS lifted its 2025 growth estimate to 3.8% on 6 October 2026, yet WIG-BANKI is down 4.7% over five sessions heading into the 7 October RPP decision, a split the growth print does not resolve.
the_jetboy · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks fall twice as fast as the market eight days before RPP
Warsaw's bank index fell 3.64% on 1 October 2026 to 27393.21, a sharper drop than the broader WIG, with the reference rate still at 3.75% and the Council due to decide on 7 October 2026.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks keep pricing cuts a 4.0% CPI print just made harder
Poland's flash September inflation rose to 4.0%, a level the NBP's March projection did not expect to see sustained, while Warsaw's rate-sensitive banks kept sliding into the print.
y entonces · CC BY 2.0 (edited)EUR/USD hits a 20-day low, but the złoty barely notices it
EUR/USD fell to a fresh 20-day low on 29 September 2026 even as EUR/PLN rose only 0.07% on the session, a split that keeps the desk's 23 September dollar-story reading intact rather than confirming it retired.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Why the złoty's slide against the euro is really a dollar story
EUR/PLN has touched a fresh 20-day high while USD/PLN's much larger monthly move exposes the dollar, not a Polish rate story, as the driver behind the złoty's slide.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A record term spread over WIBOR undercuts Warsaw banks' rate-cut wager
The 10-year POLGB yield's spread over six-month WIBOR hit a record 2.66 percentage points on 20 September, a market-implied signal that further NBP easing is running out of runway even as WIG-BANKI keeps pricing more cuts.
Orange County Archives · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Orlen sheds 6% the same day Warsaw's index prints a record
WIG20 closed at a fresh high on 17 September even as Orlen fell roughly 6% from its recent peak, a divergence that lands on a futures-expiry day and questions what the index record is actually pricing.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A hotter CPI print complicates the rate cut Warsaw's banks won't stop pricing
WIG-BANKI has gained 1.29% over five sessions into 17 September even as CPI rose to 3.4% and a proposed fuel-tax holiday adds a fresh disinflationary wrinkle NBP has not yet priced into its projection.
aromano · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks keep pricing cuts a silent central bank refuses to confirm
The Council held its rate language unchanged on 9 September even as economists flag a deteriorating inflation outlook, leaving WIG-BANKI's 2.81% five-session gain still unconfirmed by any policy signal.
AGC Glass Europe · CC BY 2.0 (edited)One wire's hike call puts Warsaw's bank rally on a two-day clock
One wire report argues the RPP will raise rates 25 basis points after November, even as WIG-BANKI has gained 2.44% over five sessions into 4 September 2026 on the assumption of further cuts from 3.75%.
Warsaw's rate-cut bet on bank stocks now has nine days left to prove itself
WIG-BANKI has added 0.92% over five sessions into the 3 September close even as Poland's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, leaving the bank sector's cut bet still untested by an NBP projection that has not yet been revised.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A weaker dollar, not just NBP cut bets, is now doing the work in Warsaw's rally
WIG20's 1.72% advance on 19 August 2026 coincided with USD/PLN touching a 20-day low of 3.694, complicating the desk's reading of WIG-BANKI as a pure rate-cut trade.
AGC Glass Europe · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw's banks price NBP cuts a hotter CPI path may not allow
WIG-BANKI rose 2.27% on 19 August 2026 even as Poland's inflation sits above the NBP's 3.5% upper tolerance band, a gap the July projection round is expected to widen rather than close.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Two stocks, not the banking sector, explain Warsaw's worst session
WIG20 fell 1.44% on 13 August 2026 led by KGHM and Orlen, while WIG-BANKI slipped only 0.26%, a split that complicates the bank-index reading the desk has tracked since early August.
Krzysztof Duda · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks retreat before the NBP projection meant to justify the rally
Warsaw's bank index has slipped 0.91% over five sessions into 10 August even as the NBP's overdue July projection round, the test the desk flagged on 3 August, remains unpublished.
Arian Zwegers · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A nineteen-year high in WIG20 tells Warsaw's banks nothing new
WIG20's break above its 2007 high on 3 August 2026 was led by an index that carries no bank stock, while WIG-BANKI's own five-session gain still rests on an NBP projection round due only in the coming week.
oscarparadela.com · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw's banks shrug off a CPI rebound that argues against further NBP cuts
WIG-BANKI has risen 4.03% over five sessions even as GUS data show consumer prices rebounding 0.8% month on month in July on fuel costs, a divergence the desk's labour-market caution from 29 July has not yet resolved.
AGC Glass Europe · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Poland's labour gauge flashes a warning Warsaw bank stocks aren't pricing
Poland's Labour Market Index climbed to 77.7 in July, a signal of rising unemployment risk, landing a day before the CPI flash that Warsaw bank stocks are betting will still leave room for NBP cuts.
CIDSE - together for global justice · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Warsaw banks rally into a CPI print that could reopen the case for cuts
WIG-BANKI rose 1.39% on 27 July 2026 even as a nearly PLN 100 million write-down hit Alior, leaving Polish bank equity betting the 30 July CPI flash confirms room for the NBP to keep cutting.
Jorge Lascar · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish banks already paid 80% of last year's tax bill in six months
Polish banks paid roughly PLN 16 billion in CIT and bank tax through the first half of 2026, almost 80% of the whole of 2025's burden, and now face talk of another CIT increase just as WIG-BANKI posts its sharpest fall of the week.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Poland's jobless rate falls to 5.8%, but sentiment says workers don't believe it
June unemployment eased to 5.8% from 5.9%, yet Poles' own view of their workplaces dropped five points in July, a split that leaves the NBP's easing case resting on a backward-looking number.
Bernard Spragg · CC0 1.0A softer inflation print can't stop the zloty's slide to a 20-day low
EUR/PLN and USD/PLN are both at fresh 20-day highs the same day core inflation eased to 3.0%, and the driver looks like the dollar, not the domestic data.
y entonces · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Poland hits its inflation target just as pump prices erase the win
Poland's June inflation print landed at the 2.5% NBP target even as pump prices jump on Iran-driven crude, leaving WIG20 near the 3800 line as the one market showing any reaction at all.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)NBP's projection day tests whether Polish rate calls are splitting for real
The NBP presents its July Inflation Report at 13:00 UTC with ING calling policy rhetoric more dovish and Erste Bank pushing cuts to end-2027, yet EUR/PLN and WIG20 show barely a flicker.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)RPP silence, EU embargo friction leave Polish assets untested
The RPP closed its July meeting without a headline move as Brussels raised the prospect of an infringement case over Poland's Ukraine grain embargo, yet EUR/PLN and WIG20 show barely any reaction.
gudmd.haralds · CC BY 2.0 (edited)Polish bonds rally on oil, then give it back on Iran risk
A four-month low in Polish bond yields, driven by fading rate-hike fears, unwound within the same session as Middle East tensions pushed oil back up, while WIG20 slipped below the 3700 level the 7 July note flagged as the market's tell.
corno.fulgur75 · CC BY 2.0 (edited)A widening current account gap gives the Council a reason to sound dovish, but the złoty isn't pricing it
Poland's exports fell 1.6% in May and the current account deficit widened to 0.9% of GDP ahead of the 8 July rate decision, yet EUR/PLN sits flat near 4.29 and WIG20 is pushing at 3700, a split the Council will have to address.