Where each rate-setter stands, read from their own words. Every entry is an attributed public remark with its source and date; the stance scale runs dove to hawk and records the shift since the previous reading. An editorial interpretation of public statements, not advice.
Each policymaker's latest public remark, read on a 1–5 dove–hawk scale across the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and NBP, with quote, date and source.
The Fed committee mean reads 3.2/5 on the dove–hawk scale across 5 tracked voices, while fed funds futures price a +66 bp move in the policy rate over the next 12 months.
The Gap: what the Fed says vs what markets priceFed in blackout until 16 Sep2026-09-11
what they saywhat markets pricedovehawk
Words and market pricing agree. No tension on the tape today.
Implied policy path · fed funds futures
The gap over time (bp, 12M) · +66 bp priced over 12 months · 5 speakers read
Two independent readings on one display axis: the committee's words (our dove–hawk reading) and the market's priced 12-month path (±50bp ≈ one notch from hold). The verdict compares directions only; there is no fused index. Point-in-time since July 2026, never revised.
Federal Reserve
Committee lean
DoveHawk
Christopher WallerVoterGovernor
neutral=
“Stubborn inflation would push him to consider a rate hike, though he favors holding rates steady otherwise.”
“A cooler CPI would make him inclined to hold rates, while a hot reading could lead him to support a hike.”
Waller signals data-dependent stance; neutral conditionality on inflation outcomes.
10 Sept 2026
“If disinflation continues, he would support maintaining current rates, but a hike might be warranted if August inflation data proves to be a fleeting improvement.”
Conditional stance: dovish if disinflation holds, hawkish if inflation persists; data-dependent.
Michelle BowmanVoterGovernor
dovish↓
“Robust bank capital levels can be maintained while reducing regulatory barriers that may harm credit availability.”
10 Sept 2026 · atlanticcouncil.org . Bowman argues for regulatory easing to support credit; dovish on regulatory tightening. · Portrait: US Federal Reserve · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
10 Aug 2026
“'potential series of small policy moves would be better than waiting and eventually concluding that even bolder actions were necessary'…”
Advocates for proactive rate increases rather than delaying tightening; clearly hawkish.
22 Jul 2026
“I would like to see a smaller balance sheet for the Federal Reserve as a whole…”
“yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what is happening right now.”
9 Sept 2026 · fxstreet.com . Warsh cautions against over-interpreting recent data; emphasizes data-dependent approach, not directional bias. · Portrait: The White House · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
8 Sept 2026
“he would like to give financial markets fewer clues about what the Fed is planning to do with interest rates in the short term…”
Communication preference statement; does not directly signal tightening or easing bias.
8 Sept 2026
“There is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. ... We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the 2% target.”
Warsh asserts Fed accountability for inflation persistence and demands confidence in disinflation progress.
European Central Bank
Committee lean
DoveHawk
Christine LagardeVoterPresident
neutral↑
“The economy is proving resilient, consumer confidence has rebounded.”
10 Sept 2026 · newsquawk.com . Lagarde characterizes economic conditions; neutral assessment of current state. · Portrait: International Monetary Fund · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
10 Sept 2026
“New additional scenarios will be published "tomorrow, or in the next few days" with respect to the forecasts. Will be a "benign", "adverse" and "severe" scenarios.”
“prepared to ease policy if inflation continues to decline toward its 2% target…”
Signals easing bias conditional on continued disinflation
Piero CipolloneVoterExecutive Board
dovish↓
“Excessive tightening could damage the economy.”
10 Sept 2026 · en.bloomingbit.io . Cipollone cautions against excessive rate increases; dovish concern over tight policy. · Portrait: Jennifer Jacquemart - European Commission · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
10 Sept 2026
“The ECB shouldn't tighten excessively, to avoid economic harm.”
Cautions against excessive tightening to prevent economic damage; dovish restraint emphasis.
13 Aug 2026
“All these potential geopolitical tensions and the transformation of every existing instrument into a weapon are clearly increasing the level of risk. That strengthens the need for a European payment system built on European technology and infrastructure, entirely under European…”
Discusses payment system strategy and geopolitical risks; no monetary policy stance on rates or inflation.
Philip LaneVoterChief Economist
lean-hawkish↓
“one final hike, taking the policy rate to 3.00% and into what could be restrictive territory…”
8 Sept 2026 · investinglive.com . Chief Economist suggests final hike appropriate; cautiously hawkish on terminal rate. · Portrait: European Central Bank · official portrait
Previous readings
19 Aug 2026
“war with Iran will likely keep 2026 inflation around 3%…”
Lane warns inflation will persist above target due to external geopolitical factors, signaling concern about price pressures.
19 Aug 2026
“3% Eurozone inflation remains too high.”
Characterizes current inflation as unacceptably elevated, implying need for continued restrictive policy.
Bank of England
Committee lean
DoveHawk
Alan TaylorVoterMPC External Member
neutral=
“The Bank has effectively already tightened policy by withdrawing the expectation of cuts.”
9 Sept 2026 · mpamag.com . Views past guidance withdrawal as tightening; argues further hikes unnecessary; neutral-dovish lean. · Portrait: Bank of England · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
8 Sept 2026
“I am comfortable with current policy but remain aware of risks.”
Taylor expresses comfort with status quo while acknowledging upside inflation risks from energy shock.
30 Jul 2026
“preferred to maintain Bank Rate at this meeting…”
Taylor voted to hold; neutral stance with insurance against upside inflation risks.
AB
Andrew BaileyVoterGovernor
hawkish↑
“inflation risks were 'to the upside' and energy prices 'could be higher still'…”
9 Sept 2026 . Governor warns of upside inflation risks and elevated energy prices, signalling hawkish concern.
Previous readings
9 Sept 2026
“risks to inflation remain on the upside, owing to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which have sent energy prices higher, while food prices are also expected to continue rising…”
Bailey emphasizes upside inflation risks from geopolitical shocks and rising commodity prices.
9 Sept 2026
“inflation risks were "to the upside" and energy prices "could be higher still" due to the conflict…”
Bailey signals upside inflation risks from geopolitical conflict and rising energy prices.
Catherine MannVoterMPC External Member
hawkish↑
“voting for a 25 basis-point hike…”
9 Sept 2026 · investing.com . MPC member votes consistently for rate increase against committee hold, indicating hawkish stance. · Portrait: ANU TV · CC BY 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
3 Sept 2026
“The UK economy had shown signs of stronger growth, the labour market had stabilised and inflation had been a little stronger than expected.”
Mann cites stronger growth and inflation above expectations, supporting tighter policy.
4 Nov 2024
“called for a rate hike to 4% as a preventative measure against second-order inflationary effects…”
Mann, along with Pill and Greene, voted for a 4% hike to preempt inflation risks.
Bank of Japan
Committee lean
DoveHawk
NT
Naoki TamuraVoterBoard Member
hawkish↑
“Hawkish members pushed for faster and more nimble rate hikes to counter rising inflation.”
10 Sept 2026 · fxstreet.com . Advocates faster rate hikes in response to inflation pressures; clearly hawkish positioning.
Previous readings
15 Aug 2026
“core inflation stood at 2% and that price risks were skewed to the upside…”
Board member cited upside inflation risks; signals hawkish concern about price pressures.
9 Aug 2026
“Opinions align with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish communication after the July meeting and indicates how support for faster rate hikes was spreading beyond two vocal hawks.”
Ueda's hawkish stance; support for faster hikes spreading across board; intervention and yen commentary strengthens hike expectations.
HT
Hajime TakataVoterBoard Member
hawkish=
“A 25-basis-point increase was not necessarily set in stone and consecutive rate hikes also remained possible.”
9 Sept 2026 · fxstreet.com . Signals openness to multiple rate hikes and larger moves, indicating tightening readiness.
Previous readings
9 Sept 2026
“Japan was approaching the central bank's 2% inflation objective and warned that the risk of prices overheating was increasing…”
“the rate should be raised by 0.25 percentage point to counter upside inflation risks.”
Takata argues for 0.25% rate increase to counter upside inflation risks; hawkish stance.
Kazuo UedaVoterGovernor
neutral↓
“not going to tell them what to do…”
9 Sept 2026 · wsws.org . Ueda declines to telegraph BOJ policy direction when queried on successive rate hikes; data-dependent posture. · Portrait: VOA · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
7 Sept 2026
“the bank would debate a hike at upcoming meetings including September…”
BOJ Governor signals rate hike debate amid strong wage and inflation data; hawkish bias.
7 Sept 2026
“the central bank will discuss policy options at its September meeting, including further rate hikes, and focus on evaluating upside risks to the economy and prices…”
Signals openness to rate hikes and focus on upside inflation risks, tilting tightening bias
Narodowy Bank Polski
Committee lean
DoveHawk
Adam GlapińskiVoterNBP President, RPP Chair
neutral↑
“Poland's gold reserves have increased to 648 tonnes and plans to raise its reserve to 700 tonnes.”
10 Sept 2026 · newsquawk.com . Glapiński reports gold reserve accumulation; no direct monetary policy stance indicated. · Portrait: Piotr Małecki, Narodowy Bank Polski · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
9 Sept 2026
“the situation could not be ruled out unless the RPP rose from the request for a further decline…”
President notes possibility of further rate reduction after holidays despite mixed signals.
9 Sept 2026
“still in agreement on the possibility of a further reduction…”
Governor signals openness to further rate cuts despite ECB's different stance.
Joanna TyrowiczVoterRPP Member
lean-dovish·
“real monetary policy continues to stimulate the economy…”
22 Jul 2026 · pb.pl . Remark characterizes current policy as stimulative despite nominal rate levels, suggesting accommodation remains. · Portrait: Niegodzisie · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
22 Jul 2026
“there is no risk of an inflation explosion like in 2022, but the current level of inflation remains stimulative…”
Remark sees inflation risk as contained but acknowledges current stimulus, balancing concern with accommodation.
Gabriela MasłowskaVoterRPP Member
dovish↓
“the July's central bank's projection points to the next rate move being a cut, possibly still in 2026…”
21 Jul 2026 · fxstreet.com . Signals expectation of rate cuts in 2026, suggesting an easing bias in current policy outlook. · Portrait: Adrian Grycuk · CC BY-SA 3.0 pl · Wikimedia Commons
Previous readings
20 Jul 2026
“This is in my opinion the correct stance for monetary policy…”
Endorses the majority RPP view leaning toward rate cuts after the holidays or in H1 2027.
Swiss National Bank
Committee lean
DoveHawk
MS
Martin SchlegelVoterChair
neutral=
“having recently reaffirmed that stance…”
17 Jul 2026 · sc.com . Reaffirms willingness to intervene against excessive franc strength, a neutral guidance signal.
Previous readings
13 Jul 2026
“the central bank was ready to intervene in the market if needed…”
Reiterates readiness for FX intervention as a policy tool, not a rate signal
Stance readings are Hawk Thorne’s editorial interpretation of attributed public remarks, with every source linked. Each committee mean is computed over its five most senior tracked voices (voting members first, then the most recently heard); the three most recent are shown. They characterise statements, not intentions, and are not investment advice.
Common questions
What does a central bank committee SAY versus what the market PRICES? What is 'The Gap'?
'The Gap' is the difference between what a central bank committee SAYS (its dove-to-hawk lean, 1–5) and the rate path the market PRICES in futures. Hawk Thorne reads it end-of-day across the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and NBP; the divergence itself is what to watch, not a forecast of who is right. It is an observation of what futures currently price, never a signal or a target.
Is Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve) hawkish or dovish?
Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-10. Most recent remark: “Stubborn inflation would push him to consider a rate hike, though he favors holding rates steady otherwise.” (edition.cnn.com).
Is Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve) hawkish or dovish?
Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve) is currently dovish (1.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-10. Most recent remark: “Robust bank capital levels can be maintained while reducing regulatory barriers that may harm credit availability.” (atlanticcouncil.org).
Is Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve) hawkish or dovish?
Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-09. Most recent remark: “yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what is happening right now.” (fxstreet.com).
Is Christine Lagarde (European Central Bank) hawkish or dovish?
Christine Lagarde (European Central Bank) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-10. Most recent remark: “The economy is proving resilient, consumer confidence has rebounded.” (newsquawk.com).
Is Piero Cipollone (European Central Bank) hawkish or dovish?
Piero Cipollone (European Central Bank) is currently dovish (1.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-10. Most recent remark: “Excessive tightening could damage the economy.” (en.bloomingbit.io).
Is Philip Lane (European Central Bank) hawkish or dovish?
Philip Lane (European Central Bank) is currently lean-hawkish (4 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-08. Most recent remark: “one final hike, taking the policy rate to 3.00% and into what could be restrictive territory…” (investinglive.com).
Is Adam Glapiński (Narodowy Bank Polski) hawkish or dovish?
Adam Glapiński (Narodowy Bank Polski) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-10. Most recent remark: “Poland's gold reserves have increased to 648 tonnes and plans to raise its reserve to 700 tonnes.” (newsquawk.com).
Is Joanna Tyrowicz (Narodowy Bank Polski) hawkish or dovish?
Joanna Tyrowicz (Narodowy Bank Polski) is currently lean-dovish (2 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-07-22. Most recent remark: “real monetary policy continues to stimulate the economy…” (pb.pl).
Is Gabriela Masłowska (Narodowy Bank Polski) hawkish or dovish?
Gabriela Masłowska (Narodowy Bank Polski) is currently dovish (1.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-07-21. Most recent remark: “the July's central bank's projection points to the next rate move being a cut, possibly still in 2026…” (fxstreet.com).
Is Alan Taylor (Bank of England) hawkish or dovish?
Alan Taylor (Bank of England) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-09. Most recent remark: “The Bank has effectively already tightened policy by withdrawing the expectation of cuts.” (mpamag.com).
Is Andrew Bailey (Bank of England) hawkish or dovish?
Andrew Bailey (Bank of England) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-09. Most recent remark: “inflation risks were 'to the upside' and energy prices 'could be higher still'…”.
Is Catherine Mann (Bank of England) hawkish or dovish?
Catherine Mann (Bank of England) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-09. Most recent remark: “voting for a 25 basis-point hike…” (investing.com).
Is Naoki Tamura (Bank of Japan) hawkish or dovish?
Naoki Tamura (Bank of Japan) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-10. Most recent remark: “Hawkish members pushed for faster and more nimble rate hikes to counter rising inflation.” (fxstreet.com).
Is Hajime Takata (Bank of Japan) hawkish or dovish?
Hajime Takata (Bank of Japan) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-09. Most recent remark: “A 25-basis-point increase was not necessarily set in stone and consecutive rate hikes also remained possible.” (fxstreet.com).
Is Kazuo Ueda (Bank of Japan) hawkish or dovish?
Kazuo Ueda (Bank of Japan) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-09. Most recent remark: “not going to tell them what to do…” (wsws.org).
Is Martin Schlegel (Swiss National Bank) hawkish or dovish?
Martin Schlegel (Swiss National Bank) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-07-17. Most recent remark: “having recently reaffirmed that stance…” (sc.com).
