Where the crowd stands, measured two ways: speculative futures positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, and disclosed short positions in GPW-listed companies from the KNF register. Positioning is a fragility reading, not a direction call: it shows how heavily a story is already subscribed.
Speculative futures positioning from the CFTC COT report, percentiled within its disclosed window and flagged when crowded, alongside disclosed GPW short positions from the KNF register.
The most stretched book is GOLD: the 100/100 percentile, net long 54.9% of open interest; 5 of 13 rostered markets read crowded.
Non-commercial net positioning as a share of open interest. The percentile places the latest reading within the report history held; readings in the outer deciles are flagged.
Latest report: 1 Sept 2026 · percentile window since 15 Jan 1986 · source: CFTC
Positioning stretch5 of 13 at an extreme
54elevated
0 = near norms · 100 = at the extreme
Speculative positioning across 13 futures contracts is elevated versus its own history since 15 Jan 1986.
How far each contract sits from its own historical median, equal-weighted. A fragility reading of the board, never a signal.
GOLDat range top
100/100 · percentile
net long 54.9% of open interest · trimming longs (-192 bp)
last more stretched 25 Aug 2026
WTIat range bottom
6/100 · percentile
net short 3.2% of open interest · extending shorts (-127 bp)
last more stretched 26 May 2026
COPPERat range top
94/100 · percentile
net long 28.6% of open interest · trimming longs (-149 bp)
last more stretched 25 Aug 2026
Net / OI · net short / net longPercentile in window · 0–100WoW
GOLDat range top54.9%100-192 bptrimming longs
COPPERat range top28.6%94-149 bptrimming longs
NASDAQ8.6%79+530 bpadding to longs
SILVER25.6%73+342 bpadding to longs
CHF-16.7%46+161 bpextending shorts
JPY-22.4%38-592 bpextending shorts
AUD-10.1%37+325 bpcovering shorts
EUR-2.9%35+156 bpcovering shorts
S&P 500-3.7%33-39 bpextending shorts
GBP-15.6%29-161 bpextending shorts
RUSSELLat range bottom-16.9%10-439 bpextending shorts
CADat range bottom-32.3%10+458 bpcovering shorts
WTIat range bottom-3.2%6-127 bpextending shorts
GPW short interest: the KNF register
Disclosed net short positions of 0.5% or more in GPW-listed issuers, aggregated per issuer. The bar shows disclosed short interest as a share of issued capital.
17 disclosed positions · 10 issuers · register as of 11 Sept 2026 · source: KNF
MODIVO4.85%4 disclosed position(s) · last change 1 Sept 2026
JSW2.01%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 9 Sept 2026
GRUPAAZOTY1.79%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 1 Sept 2026
CRQUANTUM1.69%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 8 Sept 2026
BUDIMEX1.39%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 4 Aug 2026
ALLEGRO1.17%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 2 Sept 2026
DINOPL1.12%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 8 Sept 2026
CDPROJEKT1.11%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 4 Sept 2026
Percentiles are computed within the window stated above and firm up as history accrues. Futures data from the CFTC legacy futures-only series; short-register data from the public KNF register. Editorial presentation of public data; not investment advice.
Common questions
Which futures positions are the most crowded right now?
As of the 2026-09-01 COT report, positioning sits at an extreme (top or bottom decile of the available window) in: GOLD (100), COPPER (94), RUSSELL (10), CAD (10), WTI (6). A crowded reading is a fragility observation, not a recommendation.
What is the COT report?
The Commitments of Traders report, published weekly by the CFTC, discloses futures positions by trader category. The non-commercial category proxies speculative positioning.
Does a crowded position mean the market will reverse?
No. A crowded reading describes how one-sided positioning is against its own history; it says the story is well-subscribed, not when it ends. Hawk Thorne publishes it as context, never as advice.
