Speculative futures positioning and disclosed short positions in GPW-listed companies. Read current exposure against its history; concentration alone does not predict a reversal.
Hawk Thorne Multi-Asset Asymmetry Register (HT-MAR): 156-week positioning percentiles and open-interest exposure metrics derived from CFTC Commitments of Traders and GPW disclosures.
The most stretched book is GOLD: the 99/100 percentile, net long 47.0% of open interest; 6 of 13 rostered markets read crowded.
Hawk Thorne Research · Primary Benchmark Authority · Updated 27 Oct 2026
Futures positioning
Non-commercial net positioning as a share of open interest. The percentile places the latest reading within the report history held; readings in the outer deciles are flagged.
Positions as of 27 Oct 2026 · percentile window since 15 Jan 1986
Positioning stretch6 of 13 at an extreme
61elevated
0 = near norms · 100 = at the extreme
Speculative positioning across 13 futures contracts is elevated versus its own history since 15 Jan 1986.
How far each contract sits from its own historical median, equal-weighted. A fragility reading of the board, never a signal.
GOLDat range top
99/100 · percentile
net long 47.0% of open interest · trimming longs (-270 bp)
last more stretched 20 Oct 2026
NASDAQat range top
98/100 · percentile
net long 18.2% of open interest · trimming longs (-43 bp)
last more stretched 20 Oct 2026
AUDat range bottom
5/100 · percentile
net short 39.5% of open interest · extending shorts (-126 bp)
last more stretched 25 Nov 2025
Net / OI · net short / net longPercentile in window · 0–100WoW
GOLDat range top47.0%99-270 bptrimming longs
NASDAQat range top18.2%98-43 bptrimming longs
JPYat range top27.2%91+873 bpadding to longs
COPPER14.3%71-321 bptrimming longs
RUSSELL-7.9%54+112 bpcovering shorts
CHF-14.8%49-150 bpextending shorts
SILVER17.0%43-41 bptrimming longs
CAD-18.4%27+107 bpcovering shorts
S&P 500-6.9%17+50 bpcovering shorts
EUR-16.6%17-125 bpextending shorts
GBPat range bottom-31.3%6+38 bpcovering shorts
WTIat range bottom-3.5%5-35 bpextending shorts
AUDat range bottom-39.5%5-126 bpextending shorts
Disclosed GPW short interest
Disclosed net short positions of 0.5% or more in GPW-listed issuers, aggregated per issuer. The bar shows disclosed short interest as a share of issued capital.
22 disclosed positions · 12 issuers · as of 6 Nov 2026
MODIVO4.22%3 disclosed position(s) · last change 23 Oct 2026
KRUK2.34%3 disclosed position(s) · last change 28 Oct 2026
GRUPAAZOTY2.12%3 disclosed position(s) · last change 4 Nov 2026
DINOPL1.88%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 26 Oct 2026
JSW1.72%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 3 Nov 2026
SCANWAY1.50%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 26 Oct 2026
BUDIMEX1.30%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 11 Sept 2026
CRQUANTUM1.27%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 20 Oct 2026
Percentiles use the historical window shown above. The futures and equity readings cover different participant groups and instruments; they are not directly comparable.
Common questions
Which futures positions are the most crowded right now?
As of 2026-10-27, positioning is in the top or bottom decile of the available window for: GOLD (99), NASDAQ (98), JPY (91), GBP (6), WTI (5), AUD (5). This describes concentration, without forecasting when positions will change.
What does net positioning measure?
Long positions minus short positions within the stated participant group. A value near zero can reflect large positions on both sides.
Does crowded positioning predict a reversal?
No. It describes current exposure relative to its historical range. Price direction also depends on changing expectations, liquidity and other positions outside the dataset.
