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Equities · 10 August 2026
Nasdaq, S&P and Russell futures are all extending net shorts together even as the Nasdaq Composite…
Nasdaq, S&P and Russell futures are all extending net shorts together even as the Nasdaq Composite makes gains, leaving the Nasdaq Mini short at a three-year stretch that increasingly looks like exposure against the tape.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the Nasdaq Composite rises above 27800 while the next COT report shows Nasdaq Mini futures extending their net short further, the position shifts from stretched hedge into forced-seller squeeze.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 55% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Held · 25 August 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- no ^IXIC close above 27800 through 2026-08-25
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.