Back to the register
Poland · 8 July 2026
The 8 July bond yield rally to four-month lows was an oil-driven, not a domestic disinflation…
The 8 July bond yield rally to four-month lows was an oil-driven, not a domestic disinflation, repricing, and it reversed within the same session once Middle East tensions pushed oil back up, meaning the RPP's actual inflation risk (flagged for a higher path in the coming July projection) has not eased even as WIG20 slipped below the 3700 line the desk was watching.
- What would prove it wrong
- If Polish bond yields hold their four-month low into the 15 July 2026 CPI final print and that print comes in soft against the NBP's own path, the domestic disinflation case survives; if yields instead track oil's next move rather than the CPI data, the rally is confirmed as an oil trade, not a Polish rates signal.
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.