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Equities · 24 August 2026
The Nasdaq Mini futures short-covering in the week to 18 August, against a falling Composite…
The Nasdaq Mini futures short-covering in the week to 18 August, against a falling Composite, breaks the forced-seller squeeze read this desk tracked since 1 August; the crowded-short question has now shifted to the still-extending S&P 500 and Russell 2000 futures books.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the COT report covering the week to 25 August shows the Nasdaq Mini futures net short resuming its extension while the Nasdaq Composite trades below 26,803 (its current 20-day high), the covering seen in the 18 August report reads as a pause rather than a genuine unwind.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 40% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 25 August 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- ^IXIC closed below 26803 on 2026-08-25 (close 26151.3)
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.