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FX & Rates · 3 July 2026
The euro short's stated falsifier, a weak payroll print with EUR/USD failing to break its 20-day…
The euro short's stated falsifier, a weak payroll print with EUR/USD failing to break its 20-day high, has been partially met (the print missed, the pair rose, but the range has not broken and the euro short itself extended again this week), so the squeeze thesis is corroborated by Treasury short-covering but not yet confirmed by the euro position itself.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the next weekly Commitments of Traders report shows the euro short actually shrinking rather than extending further, or EUR/USD clears its 20-day high near 1.161 on rising volume, treat the squeeze as confirmed; if the euro short keeps extending through subsequent reports despite the payroll miss, treat the crowded position as intact and this reading as wrong.
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.