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Poland · 23 July 2026
Poland's June unemployment fall to 5.8% supports the NBP's easing case on paper, but a five-point…
Poland's June unemployment fall to 5.8% supports the NBP's easing case on paper, but a five-point drop in workplace sentiment (CBOS, July) and an inflation path the NBP's own March projection already expects to be revised higher after the fuel-cap expiry mean the labour data alone should not be read as a green light for further cuts.
- What would prove it wrong
- If Poland CPI flash estimate (GUS) on 30 July comes in meaningfully above the NBP's March projection path (which already assumed CPI above the 3.5% upper band through end-2026), the softer unemployment print loses its weight in the easing debate; if it lands close to that path despite the fuel-cap expiry, the labour data's case for cutting is confirmed.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.