Back to the register
Equities · 19 August 2026
Nasdaq Mini futures extended their net short to a three-year-percentile extreme in the week to 11…
Nasdaq Mini futures extended their net short to a three-year-percentile extreme in the week to 11 August, with the 10 August test for a forced-seller squeeze, the Composite above 27,800 alongside a further-extending short, only half-fired as of 19 August 2026.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the Nasdaq Composite closes above 27,800 while a subsequent COT report shows Nasdaq Mini futures still extending their net short, the position becomes a forced-seller squeeze rather than a stretched hedge; if instead Nasdaq Mini futures begin covering while the Composite stays below that level, the exposure-against-the-tape read fails outright.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 42% · 15d horizon
- Status
- Held · 10 September 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- no ^IXIC close above 27800 through 2026-09-10
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.