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Commodities · 17 August 2026
Gold's advance to a fresh 20-day high near $4,480 is now backed by a managed-money long that grew…
Gold's advance to a fresh 20-day high near $4,480 is now backed by a managed-money long that grew 9,470 contracts in the week to 11 August, resolving the positioning-price disconnect flagged on 7 August, even as Wells Fargo trims its 2026 target range.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the next COT report shows gold's managed-money net long being trimmed while the prior week's position was expanded, the reading that the positioning-price disconnect has resolved is overturned.
- Review condition
- the next CFTC Commitments of Traders report covering the week after 11 August 2026
- Status
- Retired · 1 September 2026
- How it settled
- The 3 August reading described Brent's managed-money long at the 83rd percentile of its three-year range with room to unwind; the 25 August COT report shows that long has fallen further, to the 44.9th percentile, well past the minimum trim the falsifier specified.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.