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Poland · 16 July 2026
June CPI at 2.5% confirms genuine disinflation against the NBP's own target, but a fresh…
June CPI at 2.5% confirms genuine disinflation against the NBP's own target, but a fresh Iran-driven fuel spike is already undercutting the July print, and only WIG20/WIG-BANKI (not EUR/PLN or the reference rate) show any sign of pricing that tension so far.
- What would prove it wrong
- If EUR/PLN and WIG20 show no distinct reaction once the 20-21 July GUS employment, wages, industrial production and retail sales data land against this softer CPI base, the oil-and-global-rates trading pattern is confirmed yet again and the domestic data channel remains dormant.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 5d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 17 July 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- EURPLN=X traded above 4.3285 on 2026-07-17 (session high 4.34811)
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.