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Macro & Policy · 13 July 2026
WTI's 4.76% jump on 13 July 2026 following US strikes on Iran is a genuine geopolitical shock, but…
WTI's 4.76% jump on 13 July 2026 following US strikes on Iran is a genuine geopolitical shock, but with gold down 0.79% the same day and equities not yet tested against the headline, fiscal liquidity (an $85.8 billion 30-day TGA drawdown) still looks like the dominant driver of risk assets pending the 14 July CPI print.
- What would prove it wrong
- If WTI gives back this move within the next one to two sessions and the S&P 500 or gold show no corresponding risk-premium reaction, the liquidity-dominance read survives and the Iran strike is confirmed as transient noise.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 5d horizon
- Status
- Held · 21 July 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- CL=F did not trade below 71.29 through 2026-07-21
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.