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Macro & Policy · 28 July 2026
The 2-year Treasury yield's stretch near the 99.6th percentile of its trailing year remains a…
The 2-year Treasury yield's stretch near the 99.6th percentile of its trailing year remains a fiscal-issuance story, not a war-risk premium, confirmed by its failure to fall even as WTI crude gave back 4.96% over five sessions on fading Iran escalation risk.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the 2-year Treasury yield falls meaningfully below 4.31% in the sessions following the 28-29 July Treasury auctions and the 29 July Fed decision, the fiscal-supply framing for the front end fails.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 62% · 8d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 29 July 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- DGS2 closed below 4.31 on 2026-07-29 (close 4.22)
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.