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Macro & Policy · 7 September 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield's 99.2nd-percentile level already prices most of the current Treasury…
The 10-year Treasury yield's 99.2nd-percentile level already prices most of the current Treasury supply wave, even as the regime's stated credit-stress driver shows no corresponding extreme in high-yield spreads.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the 9 or 10 September Treasury auction (reopening) results require the 10-year yield to close above 4.95% to draw participation, and the yield holds above that level through the close of 17 September, the thesis that the supply story is already priced fails.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 62% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 10 September 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- DGS10 closed above 4.95 on 2026-09-10 (close 4.95)
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.