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FX & Rates · 2 July 2026
Leveraged funds have pushed the euro short to a record crowding level even as Treasury positioning…
Leveraged funds have pushed the euro short to a record crowding level even as Treasury positioning in the belly of the curve covers rather than extends, a divergence that leaves the dollar's next leg dependent on Friday's payrolls rather than on euro-specific weakness.
- What would prove it wrong
- If Non-Farm Employment Change prints at or below the 114K forecast and EUR/USD fails to break its 20-day low of 1.1354, treat the crowded euro short as vulnerable to a squeeze rather than as a position confirmed by fundamentals.
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.