Back to the register
Macro & Policy · 6 July 2026
A cluster of softening growth data (ISM services new orders down to 55.1, the Conference Board's…
A cluster of softening growth data (ISM services new orders down to 55.1, the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index down to 106.69, Microsoft's roughly 4,800 job cuts) is accumulating into a genuine soft-patch signal that the neutral regime read (risk score 50) is currently masking by averaging it against an expanding fiscal liquidity injection (TGA down $95.5 billion in 30 days), and the S&P 500's 2.49% five-day gain is better explained by that liquidity than by the growth data.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the FOMC Meeting Minutes due 8 July 2026 read hawkish and the S&P 500 and Gold hold their current gains regardless, the soft-data-matters thesis fails and liquidity conditions remain the dominant price driver over growth data.
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.