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Macro & Policy · 9 July 2026
Gold's 1.51% rise and the Dollar Index's 0.13% fall on 9 July 2026 reverse the liquidity-driven…
Gold's 1.51% rise and the Dollar Index's 0.13% fall on 9 July 2026 reverse the liquidity-driven decoupling flagged on 8 July, suggesting the FOMC minutes' hawkish tilt did not survive the next session and rate expectations, not fiscal liquidity alone, are again driving gold and the dollar in opposite directions.
- What would prove it wrong
- If gold and the Dollar Index diverge again in the coming sessions, gold rising while the dollar also firms, the rate-expectations reunification view fails and fiscal liquidity resumes as the dominant independent driver of gold's moves.
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.