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FX & Rates · 21 August 2026
Leveraged funds extended their Euro FX net short by 4,622 contracts in the week to 11 August 2026…
Leveraged funds extended their Euro FX net short by 4,622 contracts in the week to 11 August 2026, pushing it to the 2.6th percentile of its three-year range, leaving the crowded short unchallenged and exposed.
- What would prove it wrong
- The Euro FX net short shrinks in the next CFTC Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD holds at or above 1.1681.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 38% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Held · 5 September 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- no EURUSD=X close below 1.1369 through 2026-09-05
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.