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FX & Rates · 7 July 2026
The RBNZ is forecast to hike its Official Cash Rate to 2.50% on 8 July 2026 while Australian growth…
The RBNZ is forecast to hike its Official Cash Rate to 2.50% on 8 July 2026 while Australian growth data softens and leveraged funds trim an already thin Australian dollar long, setting up the first genuine antipodean policy divergence test in months rather than a repeat of the two currencies trading as one.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the RBNZ holds rates or delivers a dovish statement despite the forecast hike, or if the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar move in the same direction regardless of the decision, the divergence thesis fails.
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.