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Macro & Policy · 2 July 2026
The liquidity tailwind the desk cited on 1 July has reversed from a TGA drawdown into a net…
The liquidity tailwind the desk cited on 1 July has reversed from a TGA drawdown into a net issuance supply tsunami, and the regime signal's risk-on read has not yet repriced for that shift.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the regime signal downgrades from AGGRESSIVE or the fiscal gravity narrative eases back from HIGH as net issuance moderates, the supply-tsunami thesis fails; a weak Non-Farm Employment Change print against still-heavy issuance would instead confirm it.
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.