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FX & Rates · 2 September 2026
Leveraged funds covered 20,724 contracts of their Euro FX net short in the week to 25 August 2026…
Leveraged funds covered 20,724 contracts of their Euro FX net short in the week to 25 August 2026 while EUR/USD fell to 1.16, breaking the 21 August squeeze thesis that required the short to shrink only while the currency held its 20-day high.
- What would prove it wrong
- EUR/USD trades at or above 1.1681 in the next CFTC Commitments of Traders week while the Euro FX net short deepens, which would show the 25 August covering was a mechanical unwind that reversed rather than the start of the crowd's exit from a losing position.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 38% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Broke · 3 September 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- EURUSD=X closed below 1.1681 on 2026-09-03 (close 1.15996)
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.