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FX & Rates · 20 July 2026
The Treasury curve is pricing two separate stories at once: the front end (2Y, 5Y, SOFR) is…
The Treasury curve is pricing two separate stories at once: the front end (2Y, 5Y, SOFR) is covering shorts on softening Canadian and US data, while the 10-year short extends to its most stretched since January on a fiscal-supply narrative the long end has not let go of.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the next COT report shows the 10-year note's short beginning to cover alongside the front end rather than extending further, the curve-split reading fails and a single delayed repricing becomes the more likely explanation.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.