Name: Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer 12-month policy path (80bp higher, not cuts) well above the FOMC's own 2.8% committee mean, even as August job openings fell to 7.079 million and consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, leaving the front end of the Treasury curve exposed if the labor deterioration continues into the 2 October payrolls report.
Rating: 1
Author: Hawk Thorne Research

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What would prove it wrong: If the 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.50% within the next 15 trading days, the priced tightening path this note describes will have reversed rather than persisted.
Stated probability the thesis holds: 55% · 15d horizon
Status: Held · 21 October 2026 · Assessed against market data
How it settled: no DGS2 close below 4.5 through 2026-10-21

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A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.