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FX & Rates · 22 September 2026
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by a further 16,524 contracts in the week…
Leveraged funds extended their 2-year Treasury net short by a further 16,524 contracts in the week to 15 September 2026 to 1,321,644 contracts, growing into a yield at the 100th percentile of its trailing year and a Fed funds futures path pricing 70bp of additional tightening, a position the desk's 18 September falsifier has not yet broken but which the 22 September auction will test directly.
- What would prove it wrong
- The 2-year Treasury yield trades at or below 4.60% in the sessions following the 22 September 2026 auction, showing the leveraged short has outgrown the policy path it is betting against.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 42% · 8d horizon
- Status
- Held · 4 October 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- no DGS2 close below 4.6 through 2026-10-04
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.