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FX & Rates · 15 October 2026
Leveraged funds have rebuilt the 2-year Treasury short to 98.1th-percentile stretch while the…
Leveraged funds have rebuilt the 2-year Treasury short to 98.1th-percentile stretch while the priced Fed path firms at 67 basis points over 12 months and the UST 2Y NOTE yield sits at 4.79%.
- What would prove it wrong
- The 2-year Treasury yield closes at or below 4.60% before the next Commitments of Traders report.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 58% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Held · 30 October 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- no DGS2 close below 4.6 through 2026-10-30
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.