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Macro & Policy · 3 November 2026
The high-yield and investment-grade credit spreads have widened to fresh 99.6th and 100th…
The high-yield and investment-grade credit spreads have widened to fresh 99.6th and 100th percentile extremes while the S&P 500 remains below its 20-session high and equity volatility reads calm in contango.
- What would prove it wrong
- The high-yield credit spread narrows back toward its pre-13 October range as the S&P 500 recovers to approach its 20-session high of 7811.54.
- Review condition
- the Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change releases on 6 November 2026: the labor print that accompanies spread narrowing or widening will test whether credit stress is driving the equity-market stall
- Status
- Revised · 5 November 2026
- How it settled
- VIX has moved to 20.83 (67th percentile) with the term structure flipping into backwardation, contradicting the original claim of calm, contango-reading equity volatility, even as the credit spread extremes and S&P 500 sub-high positioning remain intact.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.