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Equities · 30 September 2026
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short reversed its two-week covering trend and rebuilt by 23,556…
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short reversed its two-week covering trend and rebuilt by 23,556 contracts of gross short in the week to 22 September even as the Nasdaq Composite continued climbing, alongside comparable short-building in the E-mini S&P 500 and an already record-stretched Russell E-mini short, leaving index futures positioned against a rally that has not yet broken.
- What would prove it wrong
- The Nasdaq Composite closes above 27,862 within 10 trading days without a resumption of Nasdaq Mini futures short covering, or the net short extends further while the Composite remains below 27,862.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 55% · 10d horizon
- Status
- Held · 15 October 2026 · Assessed against market data
- How it settled
- no ^IXIC close above 27862 through 2026-10-15
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.