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Equities · 9 October 2026
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short's small week-over-week increase to 22 September masked underlying…
The Nasdaq Mini futures net short's small week-over-week increase to 22 September masked underlying short covering of 11,267 contracts of gross short, leaving a position at the 71st percentile of its three-year range exposed to either a resumed squeeze or a reversal driven by fresh Apple and chip-supply demand concerns.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the Nasdaq Mini futures gross shorts resume building (net short rising) in the COT report covering the week to 6 October, the short-covering squeeze mechanism breaks in favor of the demand-concern narrative taking hold among positioned speculators.
- Review condition
- the COT report published 20 October 2026: a rise in Nasdaq Mini futures gross shorts would count against the thesis
- Status
- Revised · 26 October 2026
- How it settled
- The only new COT data available (week to 13 October, previous_report_date 2026-10-06) shows spec_net_wow +7006, i.e., the net short actually rose from roughly -14,293 to -7,287, satisfying the falsifier's 'net short rising' condition and indicating shorts resumed building rather than continuing to cover.
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.