Back to Insights6 NovemberMacro & PolicyCredit stress near a 97th-percentile extreme outlasts a payrolls-driven bounce
Hawk Thorne Research5 NovemberFX & RatesFed tightening premium thins as leveraged 2-year short keeps growing
Hawk Thorne Research5 NovemberMacro & PolicyS&P 500 drops 2.35% as the credit-stress reading the desk flagged holds
Hawk Thorne Research4 NovemberEquitiesThree-year high in Nasdaq futures longs collides with a falling Composite
Hawk Thorne Research3 NovemberMacro & PolicyHigh-yield spreads widen past October's extreme, S&P 500 still stuck below it
Hawk Thorne Research2 NovemberMacro & PolicyEquity rebound leaves the credit stress signal untouched
Hawk Thorne Research30 OctoberMacro & PolicyEquities crack as the credit-spread extreme finally meets the index
Hawk Thorne Research28 OctoberFX & RatesTreasury short clears its yield test on data that predates it
Hawk Thorne Research27 OctoberMacro & PolicyCredit spreads strike a 98th-percentile extreme the S&P 500 isn't pricing
Hawk Thorne Research23 OctoberFX & RatesA record 2-year Treasury short meets a 10-year yield below 5%
Hawk Thorne Research22 OctoberFX & RatesLeveraged funds stretch 2-year Treasury short even as housing data weakens
Hawk Thorne Research22 OctoberMacro & PolicyA labor market this calm rarely sits next to credit this stressed
Hawk Thorne Research15 OctoberFX & RatesLeveraged funds rebuild 2-year Treasury short to 98th percentile
Hawk Thorne Research15 OctoberMacro & PolicyHot producer prices firm the Fed path as credit spreads hold near highs
Hawk Thorne Research13 OctoberMacro & PolicySpread stress accelerates while Washington's rate path holds firm
Hawk Thorne Research12 OctoberMacro & PolicyTreasury yields sit at a yearly extreme while the Fed's credit flag stays muted
Hawk Thorne Research2 OctoberFX & RatesA firmer Fed path sits against a 2-year yield that just fell 10 basis points
Hawk Thorne Research30 SeptemberFX & RatesLeveraged funds trim a 2-year Treasury short that still survived its auction test
Hawk Thorne Research29 SeptemberMacro & PolicyRates market bets on a firmer Fed path as job openings sink
Hawk Thorne Research23 SeptemberMacro & PolicyA near-flat Treasury curve is pricing hikes just as Barr backs one more
Hawk Thorne Research22 SeptemberFX & RatesThe 2-year Treasury short keeps growing straight into a 100th-percentile yield
Hawk Thorne Research18 SeptemberFX & RatesLeveraged funds keep piling into a 2-year Treasury short already at record stretch
Hawk Thorne Research10 SeptemberMacro & PolicyAn oil shock at $100 lands on a Treasury yield already sitting at its year's high
Hawk Thorne Research9 SeptemberMacro & PolicyOptions traders bet on a quiet week the Treasury market already ruled out
Hawk Thorne Research8 SeptemberMacro & PolicyA 99th-percentile Treasury yield has yet to show up in credit spreads
Hawk Thorne Research7 SeptemberMacro & PolicyThree Treasury auctions this week face a 10-year yield already at a 99th percentile
Hawk Thorne Research4 SeptemberMacro & PolicyA jobs beat three times the forecast still can't wake up the VIX
Hawk Thorne Research31 AugustMacro & PolicyDealers run short gamma into payrolls as the VIX prices none of the risk
Hawk Thorne Research24 AugustEquitiesA record Nasdaq futures short unwinds just as the Composite slides
Hawk Thorne Research24 AugustMacro & PolicyA Treasury supply glut, not corporate credit, explains this week's stress score
Hawk Thorne Research18 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds' euro short hits a three-year extreme as the dollar keeps sliding
Hawk Thorne Research6 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds trim their 2-year Treasury short as the Fed path firms
Hawk Thorne Research30 JulyMacro & PolicyAuction supply, not the Fed, is what's keeping the 2-year yield this stretched
Hawk Thorne Research28 JulyMacro & PolicyIran's war premium drains out of crude while the 2-year yield stays put
Hawk Thorne Research24 JulyMacro & PolicyA 25.72% crude rally on Iran risk finds no echo in Treasury yields
Hawk Thorne Research23 JulyMacro & PolicyA $125.9bn issuance wave hits the tape before the 10-year auction even clears
Hawk Thorne Research20 JulyFX & RatesOne Treasury book, two convictions: shorts cover up front, deepen at the long end
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyFX & RatesFading Fed cut bets can't lift the dollar past a still-crowded euro short
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyMacro & PolicyDisinflation loses the vote to fiscal supply and a fresh WTI high
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyMacro & PolicySoft PPI and a China growth miss outvote a US strike on Iran
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyEquitiesIBM's 25% collapse confirms the miss, but the tape still calls it a one-off
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA cooler CPI print outlasts a live Hormuz blockade, but bonds aren't cheering
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA 3.8% CPI forecast collides with a bond market already betting against it
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyJapan's PPI hits a 2026 high, but the tape isn't pricing it yet
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyGold is pricing Fed cuts that the bond market has not yet agreed to
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyThe supply tsunami is here, but the bond market isn't punishing it, and that's the real signal
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyA 57,000 payroll miss just handed the supply-tsunami thesis its first real test, and it's failing on cue
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyThe liquidity story just flipped, and risk assets haven't noticed yet
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