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Macro & Policy · 23 July 2026
Fresh net Treasury issuance of $125.9bn against an $87.2bn TGA liquidity drain, combined with a…
Fresh net Treasury issuance of $125.9bn against an $87.2bn TGA liquidity drain, combined with a live oil supply-risk shock pushing WTI crude to a 20-day high, is compounding rather than easing pressure on the front end, and the pending 23 July 10-year auction is the near-term test of whether the market can absorb it without a yield concession.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the 23 July 10-year Treasury auction clears with a strong bid-to-cover and no yield tail relative to the pre-auction market, the supply-and-drain framing is overstated and attention should focus elsewhere for what is holding yields up.
- Stated probability the thesis holds
- 60% · 5d horizon
- Status
- Later publication
A dated research thesis and its assessment. This is not portfolio performance or an investment recommendation.