Thesis ledger
Dated forecasts and market interpretations with assessment criteria and subsequent outcomes. This records research, not portfolio performance.
Publication range: 2 Jul 2026 – 5 Nov 2026. Source: Hawk Thorne research record. Thesis descriptions retain the content recorded in the ledger.
Forecasts
25Claims about future events, assessed against a stated condition and time horizon.
- Held
- 14
- Broke
- 9
- Unresolved
- 0
- Awaiting assessment
- 2
Interpretations
134Assessments of current conditions. New evidence can sustain, revise or retire an interpretation. These do not contribute to forecast accuracy.
- Sustained
- 12
- Revised
- 26
- Retired
- 14
- Awaiting assessment
- 53
- Historical assessments
- 29
Assessment rules and forecast calibration
Since 27 July 2026, forecasts and interpretations follow separate assessment rules. Earlier interpretations graded against price thresholds remain in the history and are excluded from calibration.
Declared probabilities compared with assessed outcomes. Brier is the mean squared error; a lower score indicates less error within this sample. A small sample does not establish future forecasting accuracy.
Forecast calibration
scored forecasts: 23 · Brier: 0.248
The sample includes only resolved forecasts with a recorded probability. Interpretations and unresolved entries are excluded.
Broad short-covering in Nasdaq Mini and Russell 2000 futures, alongside a strong NY Fed manufacturing beat, signals a soft-landing rotation into cyclicals and small caps that coexists uneasily with unresolved single-name tech risk from IBM's earnings collapse and Apple's KeyBanc downgrade.
What would prove it wrong
If Nasdaq Mini and Russell 2000 futures resume net-short building in the next COT report despite continued strong data surprises, or the S&P 500 breaks below its 20-day low of 7354.02 on renewed tech-earnings contagion, the short-covering-driven rotation thesis fails.
Read analysis#How it settled
^GSPC traded below 7354.02 on 2026-07-29 (session low 7313.92)
US strikes on Iran on 15 July arrived alongside a soft core PPI print (0.2% vs 0.3%) and a China Q2 GDP miss (4.3% from 5.0%), yet the S&P 500 rose 0.24% and WTI fell 0.79%, so the market is pricing the escalation as contained and letting a cooling global cycle steer; the one holdout is the front end, with the 2-year yield at the 100th percentile of its year and 40.5bp of tightening still priced at 12 months.
What would prove it wrong
If WTI breaks above its 20-day high of 79.34 and the VIX moves meaningfully above 17.16 in the sessions following the 15 July strikes, the contained-escalation read fails and the energy-shock framing resumes as the dominant story.
Read analysis#How it settled
CL=F traded above 79.34 on 2026-07-16 (session high 80.87)
WTI crude's muted reaction to the confirmed 15 July 2026 Centcom strikes on Iran, a 0.60% move against a 0.41% typical band, alongside a managed-money net short at its widest since 23 June 2026 (99.4th percentile on the 3-year window), shows the market has stopped treating Iran escalation headlines as fresh information and is instead pricing a structurally looser physical balance.
What would prove it wrong
If WTI crude breaks above its 20-day high of 79.34 on any further escalation headline within the next 48 hours, the desensitization read fails and the acute risk-premium framing returns.
Read analysis#How it settled
horizon elapsed without a machine-checkable falsifier
June CPI's decline to 3.5% year on year, with the core index falling outright to 336.07, is a genuine disinflation signal that survived a real Hormuz supply shock rather than a forecast tiebreaker, but the 2-year yield's 99.6th percentile reading and 40.5bp of priced tightening at 12 months show the front end has not yet repriced to reflect it.
What would prove it wrong
If the 2-year yield eases meaningfully and priced tightening odds fall after the 15 July PPI print and Warsh's testimony, disinflation has won cleanly; if the yield holds near its current extreme while WTI's gain persists, energy-driven reflation remains the dominant priced force despite the CPI print.
Read analysis#How it settled
horizon elapsed without a machine-checkable falsifier
On 14 July 2026 the Iran risk premium migrated from crude to precious metals: WTI's 0.9% gain is capped by the desk's looser-balances read and its 20-day ceiling, while gold's 2.41% and silver's 3.41% move price the same Hormuz shock off low, lightly-positioned books (gold COT index 29.4, silver 18.7) with room to run, though a softening pre-CPI dollar is a live confound.
What would prove it wrong
If gold and silver give back the 14 July 2026 gains within one to two sessions while WTI keeps extending on Hormuz disruption headlines, the metals-as-cleaner-hedge read fails and the move was a dollar wobble, not a haven bid.
Read analysis#How it settled
SI=F traded below 57.6 on 2026-07-15 (session low 56.9)
IBM's escalation from a 17% to a 25%+ single-day decline confirms the earnings miss the desk flagged earlier on 14 July 2026, but the distinct mechanisms behind IBM's, Ericsson's and Dometic's misses, plus the still-muted 0.35% S&P 500 futures reaction, keep the idiosyncratic read intact over the broadening-deterioration alternative.
What would prove it wrong
If Ericsson, Dometic or another same-week miss triggers follow-through selling that drags the Russell 2000 below its 20-day low of 2917.98 or the Nasdaq Composite below its 20-day low of 25297.62, the idiosyncratic read fails and a broadening earnings-quality problem becomes the more defensible story.
Read analysis#How it settled
^IXIC traded below 25297.6 on 2026-07-17 (session low 25250.6)
The Dollar Index's failure to hold gains despite a 17-month-high 2-year yield reflects Waller's dovish 2021-mistake framing being read by the market as more likely to guide policy than the hawkish, oil-driven rate-hike chatter, with euro, yen, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar shorts all covering in the same week as corroborating flow.
What would prove it wrong
If the Dollar Index resumes a sustained rally alongside continued short-end yield increases through Warsh's testimony on 15 July 2026 and the same day's PPI print, without further COT short-covering in euro or yen positioning, the dovish-repricing thesis fails.
Read analysis#How it settled
DX-Y.NYB did not trade above 101.61 through 2026-07-22
The 14 July CPI headline forecast of 3.8% y/y is a base-effect artifact sitting on a core stuck near 2.8% and a WTI tape up 13.73% in five sessions; the 2-year yield at the 99.6th percentile and 43.5bp of tightening priced at 12m show the front end has stopped believing the disinflation read, making the energy shock the likely winner of the tiebreaker.
What would prove it wrong
If CPI prints at or below 3.8% y/y, the S&P 500 holds, and the 2-year yield backs off its five-month high while WTI keeps its five-day gain, the disinflation-over-energy read survives intact.
Read analysis#How it settled
^GSPC did not trade below 7354.02 through 2026-07-22
The SPR's fall to its lowest level since 1983, alongside a 60% drop in Hormuz traffic, weakens the offset argument the desk used on 10 and 13 July 2026 to treat WTI's Iran-driven rally as noise against a looser global balance, but WTI managed money was still extending net shorts as of 7 July 2026, so the position has not yet confirmed the tightening the physical data now suggests.
What would prove it wrong
If the next COT report still shows WTI managed money extending net shorts despite the SPR at its lowest level since 1983 and continued Hormuz disruption, the structural-looser-balances read survives and the SPR draw is confirmed as a non-material data point.
Read analysis#How it settled
CL=F traded above 84.88 on 2026-07-20 (session high 85.39)
IBM, Ericsson and FB Financial's same-day earnings misses reflect three separate mechanisms (client budget shifts, component cost inflation, a narrow margin miss) rather than a broadening single-name earnings deterioration, and the S&P 500 futures' 0.07% intraday move and still-intact 20-day ranges on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite support treating the cluster as coincidental in timing rather than causally linked.
What would prove it wrong
If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite break below their 20-day lows (7354.02 and 25297.62 respectively) alongside further earnings-driven single-day drops of 10% or more in unrelated names following the 14 July CPI print, the broadening-deterioration read is confirmed instead.
Read analysis#How it settled
^GSPC traded below 7354.02 on 2026-07-29 (session low 7313.92)
A reinstated Iranian naval blockade has pushed WTI crude up 4.85% intraday and 9.22% over five sessions, colliding with a fresh cluster of confirmed labor-market softening (Volkswagen's threatened cuts, Amazon layoffs, a weaker read of June's participation rate), making the 14 July CPI print the tiebreaker for whether energy-driven reflation or labor-driven disinflation dominates the Fed's path.
What would prove it wrong
If CPI prints at or below the 3.8% year-on-year forecast on 14 July despite the oil rebound, and equities absorb the labor headlines without a selloff, the disinflation trade survives the energy shock intact.
Read analysis#How it settled
CL=F traded above 80 on 2026-07-14 (session high 81.27)
WTI's second outsized weekly gain (+9.22% over five days to 74.87) on the reinstated Iranian blockade is an acute supply-risk premium layered on a physical market that is not tightening on aggregate, since Kazakhstan's 8.4% H1 output drop is offset by Nigeria at a six-year high and OPEC's bullish 2027 demand upgrade drew no tape reaction; the structural-looser-balances read holds pending positioning confirmation.
What would prove it wrong
If the next COT report (after 7 July) shows WTI managed money building outright fresh net longs rather than extending net shorts, and WTI clears its 20-day high of 84.88, the escalation is confirmed as a genuine repricing and the looser-balances read fails.
Read analysis#How it settled
CL=F traded above 84.88 on 2026-07-20 (session high 85.39)