Thesis ledger
Dated forecasts and market interpretations with assessment criteria and subsequent outcomes. This records research, not portfolio performance.
Publication range: 2 Jul 2026 – 10 Sept 2026. Source: Hawk Thorne research record. Thesis descriptions retain the content recorded in the ledger.
Forecasts
15Claims about future events, assessed against a stated condition and time horizon.
- Held
- 7
- Broke
- 6
- Unresolved
- 0
- Awaiting assessment
- 2
Interpretations
99Assessments of current conditions. New evidence can sustain, revise or retire an interpretation. These do not contribute to forecast accuracy.
- Sustained
- 4
- Revised
- 9
- Retired
- 7
- Awaiting assessment
- 50
- Historical assessments
- 29
Assessment rules and forecast calibration
Since 27 July 2026, forecasts and interpretations follow separate assessment rules. Earlier interpretations graded against price thresholds remain in the history and are excluded from calibration.
Declared probabilities compared with assessed outcomes. Brier is the mean squared error; a lower score indicates less error within this sample. A small sample does not establish future forecasting accuracy.
Forecast calibration
scored forecasts: 13 · Brier: 0.250
The sample includes only resolved forecasts with a recorded probability. Interpretations and unresolved entries are excluded.
Fed funds futures are pricing a firmer policy path (52bp higher over 12 months) even as leveraged funds keep covering a once-record Euro FX short, and the two signals cannot both be right about where dollar strength is headed.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
The Euro FX net short deepens in the next Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD trades at or below 1.1535, reversing the covering wave and showing the priced tightening path is dominating the currency.
The options market is pricing calm into a rates market pricing a firmer path and a Treasury yield at the 99.2nd percentile of its year, a positioning gap the 8 September note's credit-stress finding does not explain.
What would prove it wrong
If the VIX closes above 20 in the five sessions following the 11 September Core CPI y/y print, the options market has repriced its assessment of the rate-path risk it is currently underpricing.
Read analysis#How it settled
VIXCLS closed below 20 on 2026-09-10 (close 17.84)
The 10-year Treasury yield's 99.2nd-percentile level already prices most of the current Treasury supply wave, even as the regime's stated credit-stress driver shows no corresponding extreme in high-yield spreads.
What would prove it wrong
If the 9 or 10 September Treasury auction (reopening) results require the 10-year yield to close above 4.95% to draw participation, and the yield holds above that level through the close of 17 September, the thesis that the supply story is already priced fails.
Read analysis#How it settled
DGS10 closed above 4.95 on 2026-09-10 (close 4.95)
Fed funds futures price a firmer twelve-month rate path, 37.5 basis points higher, on an August payrolls beat of 162,000 against a 55,000 forecast, while the VIX sits at 15.2 (33rd percentile) with large positive S&P 500 dealer gamma showing the options market pricing calm.
What would prove it wrong
If the VIX closes above 20 in the five sessions following the 4 September 2026 payrolls release, the options market has repriced its assessment of the labour-driven rate path.
Read analysis#How it settled
no VIXCLS close above 20 through 2026-09-12
Fed funds futures price a firmer, not looser, twelve-month policy path (43.5bp) even as the VIX sits in the 4th percentile of its trailing range with dealers short gamma in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 options, a divergence the 4 September labor report can only partially resolve, since it tests the options market's near-term calm but cannot on its own validate or invalidate a cumulative twelve-month rates path.
What would prove it wrong
If the VIX closes above 20 in the five sessions after the 4 September Non-Farm Employment Change release, the options market's low-volatility pricing will have failed the one leg the report can actually test.
Read analysis#How it settled
no VIXCLS close above 20 through 2026-09-11
Russell 2000 futures' record-crowded speculative net short shrank by 2,940 contracts in the week to 25 August as the Russell 2000 fell 1.53% over five sessions, a mismatch that leaves the position looking pressured.
What would prove it wrong
If the next COT report shows the Russell E-Mini net short resuming its extension while the Russell 2000 stays below its 20-day high of 3068.42, this week's covering reads as a pause inside a still-crowded short rather than a genuine unwind.
Read analysis#How it settled
^RUT closed below 3068.42 on 2026-09-04 (close 2975.65)
Leveraged funds covered 20,724 contracts of their Euro FX net short in the week to 25 August 2026 while EUR/USD fell to 1.16, breaking the 21 August squeeze thesis that required the short to shrink only while the currency held its 20-day high.
What would prove it wrong
EUR/USD trades at or above 1.1681 in the next CFTC Commitments of Traders week while the Euro FX net short deepens, which would show the 25 August covering was a mechanical unwind that reversed rather than the start of the crowd's exit from a losing position.
Read analysis#How it settled
EURUSD=X closed below 1.1681 on 2026-09-03 (close 1.15996)
Fed funds futures price a firmer, not looser, policy path over the next year even as the VIX sits near its lowest levels of its recent range, leaving dealer short gamma in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 options positioned to amplify whatever the 4 September labor data delivers.
What would prove it wrong
If the 4 September Non-Farm Employment Change prints at or below negative 23,000, the priced-higher Fed path should compress and the VIX's low-percentile signal will have been wrong.
Read analysis#How it settled
no ^GSPC close below 7500 through 2026-09-09
The Nasdaq Mini futures short-covering in the week to 18 August, against a falling Composite, breaks the forced-seller squeeze read this desk tracked since 1 August; the crowded-short question has now shifted to the still-extending S&P 500 and Russell 2000 futures books.
What would prove it wrong
If the COT report covering the week to 25 August shows the Nasdaq Mini futures net short resuming its extension while the Nasdaq Composite trades below 26,803 (its current 20-day high), the covering seen in the 18 August report reads as a pause rather than a genuine unwind.
Read analysis#How it settled
^IXIC closed below 26803 on 2026-08-25 (close 26151.3)
Leveraged funds extended their Euro FX net short by 4,622 contracts in the week to 11 August 2026, pushing it to the 2.6th percentile of its three-year range, leaving the crowded short unchallenged and exposed.
What would prove it wrong
The Euro FX net short shrinks in the next CFTC Commitments of Traders report while EUR/USD holds at or above 1.1681.
Read analysis#How it settled
no EURUSD=X close below 1.1369 through 2026-09-05
Nasdaq Mini futures extended their net short to a three-year-percentile extreme in the week to 11 August, with the 10 August test for a forced-seller squeeze, the Composite above 27,800 alongside a further-extending short, only half-fired as of 19 August 2026.
What would prove it wrong
If the Nasdaq Composite closes above 27,800 while a subsequent COT report shows Nasdaq Mini futures still extending their net short, the position becomes a forced-seller squeeze rather than a stretched hedge; if instead Nasdaq Mini futures begin covering while the Composite stays below that level, the exposure-against-the-tape read fails outright.
Read analysis#How it settled
no ^IXIC close above 27800 through 2026-09-10
Nasdaq, S&P and Russell futures are all extending net shorts together even as the Nasdaq Composite makes gains, leaving the Nasdaq Mini short at a three-year stretch that increasingly looks like exposure against the tape.
What would prove it wrong
If the Nasdaq Composite rises above 27800 while the next COT report shows Nasdaq Mini futures extending their net short further, the position shifts from stretched hedge into forced-seller squeeze.
Read analysis#How it settled
no ^IXIC close above 27800 through 2026-08-25