Thesis ledger
Dated forecasts and market interpretations with assessment criteria and subsequent outcomes. This records research, not portfolio performance.
Publication range: 2 Jul 2026 – 10 Sept 2026. Source: Hawk Thorne research record. Thesis descriptions retain the content recorded in the ledger.
Forecasts
15Claims about future events, assessed against a stated condition and time horizon.
- Held
- 7
- Broke
- 6
- Unresolved
- 0
- Awaiting assessment
- 2
Interpretations
99Assessments of current conditions. New evidence can sustain, revise or retire an interpretation. These do not contribute to forecast accuracy.
- Sustained
- 4
- Revised
- 9
- Retired
- 7
- Awaiting assessment
- 50
- Historical assessments
- 29
Assessment rules and forecast calibration
Since 27 July 2026, forecasts and interpretations follow separate assessment rules. Earlier interpretations graded against price thresholds remain in the history and are excluded from calibration.
Declared probabilities compared with assessed outcomes. Brier is the mean squared error; a lower score indicates less error within this sample. A small sample does not establish future forecasting accuracy.
Forecast calibration
scored forecasts: 13 · Brier: 0.250
The sample includes only resolved forecasts with a recorded probability. Interpretations and unresolved entries are excluded.
Poland's June unemployment fall to 5.8% supports the NBP's easing case on paper, but a five-point drop in workplace sentiment (CBOS, July) and an inflation path the NBP's own March projection already expects to be revised higher after the fuel-cap expiry mean the labour data alone should not be read as a green light for further cuts.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If Poland CPI flash estimate (GUS) on 30 July comes in meaningfully above the NBP's March projection path (which already assumed CPI above the 3.5% upper band through end-2026), the softer unemployment print loses its weight in the easing debate; if it lands close to that path despite the fuel-cap expiry, the labour data's case for cutting is confirmed.
EUR/PLN and USD/PLN broke to fresh 20-day highs on 17 July 2026 despite softer core inflation, and the move looks driven by broad dollar strength (EUR/USD down to 1.1444) rather than any repricing of Poland's disinflation path.
What would prove it wrong
If EUR/PLN and USD/PLN retrace back inside their prior 20-day ranges (below roughly 4.3237 and 3.79 respectively) once the 20-21 July GUS employment, wages, industrial production, PPI and retail sales data land, the move is confirmed as a global dollar and rates event rather than a domestic repricing.
Read analysis#How it settled
EURPLN=X did not trade below 4.28 through 2026-07-25
June CPI at 2.5% confirms genuine disinflation against the NBP's own target, but a fresh Iran-driven fuel spike is already undercutting the July print, and only WIG20/WIG-BANKI (not EUR/PLN or the reference rate) show any sign of pricing that tension so far.
What would prove it wrong
If EUR/PLN and WIG20 show no distinct reaction once the 20-21 July GUS employment, wages, industrial production and retail sales data land against this softer CPI base, the oil-and-global-rates trading pattern is confirmed yet again and the domestic data channel remains dormant.
Read analysis#How it settled
EURPLN=X traded above 4.3285 on 2026-07-17 (session high 4.34811)
Analyst views on the NBP's rate path have split openly (ING sees dovish rhetoric and a possible 2026 cut, Erste Bank sees a hold to end-2027), yet EUR/PLN and WIG20 show no distinct reaction to this specific catalyst, extending the pattern where Polish assets trade oil and global rates rather than domestic policy signals.
What would prove it wrong
If EUR/PLN and WIG20 continue to show no discernible reaction once the NBP's July Inflation Report press conference and the 15 July 2026 CPI final print both land, the institutional-overhang thesis fails again and Polish assets are confirmed as trading purely on oil and global rates.
Read analysis#How it settled
EURPLN=X did not trade above 4.36 through 2026-07-18
The RPP's quiet July hold and the EU's embargo warning both passed through EUR/PLN and WIG20 without a discernible reaction, confirming that Polish assets are still trading on oil and global rates rather than on the domestic institutional and political overhang building beneath them.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If EUR/PLN and WIG20 continue to show no discernible reaction once the 15 July 2026 CPI final print lands against a projection path the NBP itself expects to revise higher, or to any formal EU move on the embargo, the institutional-overhang thesis fails and Polish assets remain purely an oil and global-rates trade.
The 8 July bond yield rally to four-month lows was an oil-driven, not a domestic disinflation, repricing, and it reversed within the same session once Middle East tensions pushed oil back up, meaning the RPP's actual inflation risk (flagged for a higher path in the coming July projection) has not eased even as WIG20 slipped below the 3700 line the desk was watching.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If Polish bond yields hold their four-month low into the 15 July 2026 CPI final print and that print comes in soft against the NBP's own path, the domestic disinflation case survives; if yields instead track oil's next move rather than the CPI data, the rally is confirmed as an oil trade, not a Polish rates signal.
Poland's widening current account deficit and softer exports argue for a more cautious RPP tone on 8 July, but the złoty's flat price action and WIG20's push toward 3700 on record bond demand suggest the market is not pricing that dovish tilt, a gap the Council's statement should resolve.
Read analysis#What would prove it wrong
If the RPP holds rates unchanged on 8 July and frames its statement around inflation risk rather than the export and current account weakness, or if WIG20 fails to hold above 3700 through the decision, the dovish-tilt thesis fails.